NBA Realities

The Brooklyn Nets‘ fanbase currently views the 2024-25 season as a vehicle to improve the team’s chances of drafting Cooper Flagg in 2025. Justin Quinn of the Nets wrote on August 30th that Brooklyn’s top goal this season should be improving its odds of drafting  Flagg.

By now, it is no secret that the Brooklyn Nets’ front office is on a tank patrol this season as they try to capture the (Cooper) Flagg. The Nets have sold off a fair amount of their better player contracts to other ball clubs around the NBA, and are poised to compete for a top lottery pick as a result, with the franchise controlling their own pick in this coming summer’s draft.

However, Brooklyn needs to avoid tanking for Flagg, as his current skill set indicates he is a role player in the league. Before arriving at Duke University, the mainstream media created a narrative that Flagg had the potential to become an all-star at the NBA level.  

On October 30th, 2023, Paul Biancardi of ESPN stated that Flagg could become Paul George in the league.  

Flagg has all the tools and approach desired from a basketball player. He’s a crafty playmaker with a smooth stroke and athletic frame. There are so many potential player comparisons, but it’s hard to settle on one. Mike Dunleavy and Paul George come to mind.

He mentally transitioned from a scoring role to facilitator this past summer and excelled. Now, he’ll go back to a scoring role at Montverde during the upcoming season.

As a facilitator, the ball becomes less sticky in his hands and with his teams. He is a ball mover and assist maker and is outstanding at seeing a play develop and finding the open man. Flagg is a willing passer who demonstrates accuracy and touch — if his teammate is far away, he understands his pass needs more velocity, and if he is in tight quarters, he’ll use a quick touch pass.

Cooper Flagg off the dribble

Unfortunately, Cooper Flagg’s early film at Duke indicates that the narrative around his potential has been misleading.  Flagg is having trouble separating from defenders off the dribble because he takes a pause between dribbles most of the time.

For example, Flagg had the ball on the right wing with 13:09 minutes remaining in the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats on November 12th. A few seconds later, his teammate Caleb Foster set a screen for him, allowing Cooper to switch defenders from forward Ansley Almonor to guard Koby Brea by taking two dribbles to the right.        

Cooper Flagg proceeded to do an in-between-the-legs dribble to the left, leading Brea to step back with his right foot. Brea wanted to close off any potential driving opportunities to the left, so his decision momentarily created extra space on the right side.

Unfortunately, Flagg didn’t take advantage of the extra space as he waited a few moments to dribble the ball.   Cooper’s inability to do a second dribble quickly allowed  Brea to get in position to cover the open space.

Consequently, Flagg tried to use his left arm and shoulder to separate from Brea as he drove towards the basket. Cooper could not get separation, leading to shooting and making a contested floater. Flagg’s inability to get separation off the dribble means he must create scoring opportunities off the ball.       

Flagg’s shooting

Unfortunately,  Flagg has limited avenues to generate production off the ball. Cooper has been an inconsistent three-point shooter since high school. According to ESPN, he shot 26% on 3-pointers for his prep school, Montverde Academy, during the 2022-23 season.

According to Tyler Metcalf of No Ceilings Substack, Cooper Flagg dramatically improved his three-point shooting during the 2023-24 season.

Last year at Montverde, Flagg took 56.9% of his jumpers (74 attempts) from three. On these attempts, he shot 39.2%, ranked in the 78th percentile in PPP, shot 37.7% off the catch, and shot 42.9% off the dribble. Flagg also shot 39.3% on all two-point attempts, 43.2% from inside 17 feet, and 31.6% on long two-point attempts. Nearly all of these numbers are up from last year, combined with his 79.6% free throw percentage and quality floater (45% and 72nd percentile in PPP), suggesting that at worst, Flagg should be an average shooter.     

However, Flagg’s shooting has regressed during the early stages of the 2024-25 season at Duke. He is shooting 29.2% from behind the arc on 4 attempts per game in 6 outings. If Flagg were to be drafted by the Nets, his success would depend on becoming a more consistent three-point shooter, as the team rarely runs off the ball.

Brooklyn ranks 18th in players coming off-screen possessions, averaging 3 per game in 19 outings this season. Furthermore, the team is 20th in cut possessions, averaging 6.8 per game.

Cooper’s off the ball defense

Although Cooper Flagg should struggle offensively in the league, he will be a very good to great off-the-ball defender. Flagg has repeatedly used his defensive awareness to help teammates with their assignments.      

For example, on November 26th, Flagg was guarding Kansas forward KJ Adams Jr. with 19 minutes remaining in the first half. Adams chose to stand behind the arc despite shooting 0% from three on seven attempts during his 113-game college career.

Consequently, Cooper chose to stand in paint, leaving Adams open. Flagg’s decision allowed him to be in a position to help his teammate Kon Knueppel, who was a couple of feet behind Kansas guard AJ Storr. Cooper Flagg’s presence led Storr to shuffle his feet and pick up his dribble, resulting in a travel.

Given Flagg’s current skill set, I projected him to be a solid rotation player in the league. The Brooklyn Nets should not try to tank for him if I am correct.