LA Clippers guard James Harden was recently named the most overrated player in the NBA by Grant Hughes of Bleacher Report on August 20th because of his declining statistics and injury history.

Shuttling between the Rockets, Brooklyn Nets, Philadelphia 76ers and LA Clippers, Harden’s numbers have declined across the board. He’s been disruptive, unavailable and in increasingly poor shape during a span that has included no fewer than three trade requests.

Nobody has left more teams worse off than he found them over the last half-decade than the 34-year-old, yet he’s returned huge value in trade every time he’s been moved.

Why James Harden regressed after leaving Houston 

However, Hughes’ argument is misleading, as Harden’s statistical regression is due to stylistic change. Harden was predominantly an isolation player with the Houston Rockets.

He was in isolation for 33.5% of his possessions, averaging 10 per game from 2015 to 2020. Harden’s isolation-heavy style resulted in him leading the league in scoring within the play type. He averaged 10.9 points, shooting 40.3% on 7.9 attempts per game. 

James Harden’s Brooklyn Nets era

However, after departing Houston, Harden saw a significant decline in his isolation possessions. James Harden spent 32.7% of his possessions in isolation, with the Brooklyn Nets averaging 7.8 per game. He averaged 8.4 points, shooting 40.6% on 6 attempts per game. 

The decline in possessions/production was related to a change in role description. Former teammate Kyrie Irving told him to be a facilitator for the club within a month of his arrival:

“We established that maybe four days ago now,” Irving said after the Nets’ 134-117 win over the Golden State Warriors on Saturday. “I just looked at him, and I said, ‘You’re the point guard, and I’m going to play shooting guard.’ That was as simple as that.”

Consequently, Harden’s passes increased by 22.3% from his time in Houston, averaging 65.3 per game. He also averaged 10.5 assists in Brooklyn, a 36.4% increase from his time in Houston. After 80 games in Brooklyn, Harden was traded to Philadelphia. Unfortunately, Doc Rivers wanted him to be a facilitator for the team.

Philadelphia 76ers

Doc told Bill Simmons of the Ringer in June of 2023 that the 76ers performed best when James Harden was a facilitator:

I thought the first half of the year, we were the best team in the game. I thought James was playing perfect basketball. He was the point guard of the team. He was still scoring, but he was doing more playmaking and scoring. Then in the second half, he started scoring more, trying to score more, and I thought we got stagnant at times. I thought we changed.”

Harden’s role led to him averaging 67.3 passes per game. Harden accumulated 10.6 assists per game with the Philadelphia 76ers.  The increased facilitator role was a big factor in James’s steeper decline in isolation possessions. He averaged 6.8 per game, 32.8% of his offensive possessions. James scored 7.3 points on 39.8% shooting.

These events have been a significant factor in his scoring average decreasing by 11.1 points per game since leaving Houston. However, the Clippers made multiple decisions in the 2024 offseason, suggesting that Harden will be back in a scoring role during the 2024-25 season.

The team didn’t re-sign Paul George and traded Russell Westbrook. Therefore, the team only has two primary ball handlers on the roster: Harden and Kawhi Leonard. Unfortunately, Leonard has averaged 48 games per season since 2018 due to recurring knee/quad injuries.

Kawhi’s injury history injury indicates that James Harden will be the team’s sole primary ball handler/ scorer during many games. Consequently, Harden will have ample opportunities to increase his isolation possessions.  

Harden’s style is unlikely to get any pushback from the team, as head coach Ty Lue has featured isolation in his offensive system. Lue was the head coach for the LeBron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers team from 2015 to 2018.

During this time, Cleveland ranked in the top 6 in isolation possessions, averaging 11 per game. Lue has continued to feature this play type in his Clippers offensive system. LA has been in the top ten in isolation possessions over the last three seasons, averaging 10.5 per game.

These factors indicate that James Harden will have a resurgence next season.