NBA Realities

Nikola Topic is projected to go in the lottery during the 2024 NBA Draft. Jonathan Givony of ESPN stated on May 22nd that he is currently projecting the Portland Trail Blazers to select Nikola Topic with the 7th pick.

“The Trail Blazers drafted what they hope is their point guard of the future last year in Scoot Henderson and have two talented backcourt players in the fold already in Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons. Topic’s size, playmaking ability, feel for the game and improving perimeter shooting should allow him to play in a variety of lineup configurations, but Portland will also likely look at pure wing prospects in addition to frontcourt players who might fill a more immediate need. – Givony”.

Nikola Topic’s favorite offensive set

At first glance, Portland’s selection of Topic makes sense, as the team heavily featured his favorite offensive set in their system this season. Tyler Metcalf of the No Ceilings substack stated on December 20th, 2023, that Nikola Topic had spent 43.2% of his possessions as a pick-and-roll ball handler.

Nikola Topic has been very productive in the offensive set. According to Keandre Ashley of Hoop Intellect, he shot 54.5% as a pick-and-roll ball handler on 99 attempts this season.

Nikola Topic also used the pick and roll to facilitate shots for his teammates. The pick-and-roll offensive set accounted for 34.4% of his assists, as he averaged 5.5 per game.

Topic’s effectiveness in the pick-and-roll makes Portland a logical landing spot for him. Portland ranked fifth in pick-and-roll possessions during the 2023-24 season, averaging 20.8 per game.

Scoot Henderson

Unfortunately, Portland already has a pick-and-roll-reliant guard on the roster in Scoot Henderson. Before entering the NBA, Henderson spent 43.7% of his possessions as a pick-and-roll ball handler. Portland allowed him to spend many possessions as a pick-and-roll ball handler. The pick-and-roll accounted for 39.8% of his possessions, averaging 7 per game.

Consequently, Topic would spend a significant amount of time off the ball. Unfortunately, he is a below-average shooter, shooting 24.7% from behind the arc on 2.6 attempts. Therefore, Portland is not the ideal fit for Nikola Topic right now.

The only other team that makes sense for him is the Chicago Bulls. Chicago has been in the top 5 in pick-and-roll possessions, averaging 22.9 per game over the last three seasons. Chicago has been linked to him in mock drafts during recent weeks.

However, the team is also reportedly interested in Donovan Clingan and Matas Buzelis. If Chicago doesn’t draft him, Nikola Topic has no obvious landing spot, as the other pick-and-roll teams already have guards in place who have similar skills.