The Sacramento Kings’ reported offseason plans are a sign that Domantas Sabonis will see a decline in production next season. Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN stated on June 20th that the Kings are planning to re-sign Malik Monk to a 4-year contract worth $78 million.
The following day, Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports reported that the team is thinking about trading Harrison Barnes and Kevin Hurter during the 2024 offseason. If the Sacramento Kings accomplish these goals, their three-point percentage will decline. Barnes and Huerter have shot over 38% on at least three attempts per game since 2020.
Their three-point percentage is 1.3% higher than the league average of 36.2%. Unfortunately, Monk has shot below the league average over the past two seasons, shooting 35.4% on 5.5 attempts per game.
The impact of Domantas Sabonis
Sacramento’s reported willingness to trade above-average shooting will hurt Domantas Sabonis’ offensive production. Domantas Sabonis has led the team in front-court touches over the last two seasons, averaging 51.2 per game. He utilizes these touches to perform dribble handoffs with the perimeter players on the team.
Kings vs 76ers
For example, Domantas Sabonis received the ball at half-court midway through the third quarter of a road game against the 76ers. He dribbled the ball to the three-point line on the left wing before handing it over to Keegan Murray. Keagan’s defender, James Harden, could not go around Domantas Sabonis’ body, allowing Murray to make an open three-pointer.
These offensive sets have been the catalyst behind Sacramento’s ranking number one in handoffs over the past two seasons, averaging 10.8 per game. Domantas Sabonis’ top two handoff partners have been Huerter and Murray, averaging a combined 5.2 possessions per game, the top three in the league.
Handoffs have helped Domantas Sabonis lead the team in passing, averaging 68.2 per game. Sabonis’s passes have generated 46.5 field goal attempts per game. 46.9% of those shots were from behind the arc, as the team averaged 21.8 per game.
Domantas Sabonis’ passes account for 56.9% of the team’s three-point attempts, averaging 38.3 per game, the top ten in the league. Threes have accounted for 42.8% of the team’s shots, averaging 89.5 field goals per game.
How worse shooting will affect Sabonis
Although three-pointers are a significant part of the team’s offense, Sacramento is in the middle of the league in efficiency shooting, at 36.7%. The Kings’ efficiency has been weighed down by below-average shooters taking a significant number of attempts.
De’Aaron Fox and Monk took 11.9 attempts per game over the past two seasons. They shot a combined 35.3% from behind the arc. Unfortunately, statistics indicate that the duo will see a decrease their percentage in the near future.
Before last season, Fox shot 32.1% on 3.8 attempts per game. He improved his percentage by 4.8% during the 2023-24 season on 7.8 attempts. If the Kings trade Barnes and Huerter, they will only have two players with an above-average career three-point percentage in Keon Ellis and Murray.
Therefore, Sabonis will see a decrease in his play-making statistics. He has averaged 7.7 assists, which have created 20.3 points per game for the team over the last two seasons. His stats will likely dip due to the decrease in quality shooting.
The Kings’ plans will also impact his scoring output. Domantas Sabonis has taken 83.2% of his shots in the paint over the last two seasons, averaging 10.4 points per game. He shot 63.6% from the field, allowing him to average 12.6 points per game.
He will have difficulty scoring if the Kings decide to trade away some of their shooters. Opposing teams can tell their players to stand below the arc to encourage the lower-quality shooters to take more threes. Consequently, the paint becomes more congested for Sabonis, making it challenging to qualify shot attempts.
If the Kings go ahead with the reported plans, he will no longer be a priority for the team due to his supporting cast.
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