NBA Realities

There is a perception within mainstream media that the Sacramento Kings will avoid the play-in tournament during the 2024-25 season. ESPN predicted on August 22nd that the Kings capture the 6th seed with 47 wins.

Sacramento Kings offense

Unfortunately,  ESPN’s projection for the Sacramento Kings is too ambitious because their offensive system and roster are incompatible.  Kings head coach Mike Brown has been running a ball movement offense since the 2022-23 season.

Sacramento has averaged 302.4 passes per game during this span, ranking in the top five in the league. Brown has chosen Domantas Sabonis to be the engine for the offense, as he averaged 68.2 passes per game, the most on the team.

  Sabonis usually starts Sacramento’s ball movement between the free-throw and three-point lines. For example, he had the ball near the left elbow early in the first quarter against the Lakers on March 13th.  Domantas passed the ball to De’Aaron Fox, standing on the left wing.  

Fox immediately passed the ball back, leading Sabonis to perform a cross-court pass to Keegan Murray in the right corner. Murray ended the possession by making a three-pointer. 

Mike Brown’s offensive sets have led the Sacramento Kings to take a three-pointer 42.7% of the time, averaging 38.2 attempts per game, the top 6 in the league. The starting lineup has been responsible for 62.6% of those attempts, averaging 23.9 per game. The starters were the catalyst behind Sacramento raking 12th in three-point percentage, making 36.7% of those attempts.      

Given the Sacramento Kings’ offensive system and shot profile, the front office needed to assemble a roster with significant three-point shooting in the starting lineup. Unfortunately, Sacramento is projected to have only two players in the starting lineup who have a career three-point shooting percentage of above 36%.

Keon Ellis and  Murray have shot over 38% on at least 2.5 attempts per game. Consequently, opponents can have three defenders standing below the arc. The paint is more crowded, making it harder for the team to get a good shot near the basket. 

As a result, the Kings have two options: take a contested shot near the basket or rely on below-average shooters to make a three-pointer. These factors make me believe the Sacramento Kings’ ceiling during the 2024-25 season is the play-in game.