NBA Realities

The Dallas Mavericks traded Luka Dončić because they were unhappy with his defensive effort. Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison stated after the trade that defense wins championships.

“I believe that defense wins championships,” Mavs GM Nico Harrison told ESPN regarding his motivation to trade Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis. “I believe that getting an All-Defensive center and an All-NBA player with a defensive mindset gives us a better chance. We’re built to win now and in the future.”

However, if the team truly believed defense wins championships, they would be trading careering immediately. Dallas performed better defensively when Kyrie Irving was on the bench.

Opponents are averaging 84.8 points, shooting 45.9% from the field on 68 shots per game in his 35.9 minutes, the highest on the team. On the other hand, opponents are averaging 45.2 points, shooting 44. 6% on 37.1 shots, lowest on the team.

My theory on the Luka Dončić trade

However, Dallas reportedly plans to keep him on the roster past the deadline. Consequently, the defense wins championships statement appears to be a cover story to avoid explaining the real reason behind this trade. In reality, it appears that Dallas set the wheels in motion to trade Luka Dončić shortly after Christmas Day. 

The Nets’ role in the Luka Dončić trade

On December 29, Marc Stein reported that the Brooklyn Nets passed up on a trade package from Memphis that would have given them a first-round pick for Dorian Finney-Smith. Brooklyn decided to trade Smith for two second-round picks to Los Angeles instead. According to Brian Windhorst, Brooklyn rejected Memphis’s offer because they refused to take on a salary pass this season.

However, the Nets general manager, Sean Marks, has publicly stated that he doesn’t have a clear direction for the team. 

These comments make the rejection of the Memphis deal even more confusing. If a team doesn’t know its direction, one would assume that it would want to collect as many high-quality assets as possible.

Collecting high-quality assets makes it easier for the team to execute its plan successfully in either direction. Brooklyn appears to have some interest in trading for De’Aaron Fox. An extra first-round pick would give the team better odds at acquiring him from Sacramento. 

Brooklyn would only accept a lower-quality asset if external factors outside of their control were at play. The league could have informed them that they wanted Luka Dončić to be a Los Angeles Lakers. If this is the case, the league would have wanted Smith to be a laker to make Luka Dončić’s adjustment to a new team and city easier. 
  
Luka Dončić has publicly admitted that he had a close relationship with Smith. On October 27th, 2023, Luka said that he would love to play with Smith again someday.

The NBA’s role in the trade

Furthermore, Marc Sten revealed on February 2 that the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks started talking about this trade eleven days after Smith was acquired from Brooklyn. You may ask yourself why the league wants Luka Dončić on the Los Angeles Lakers.

Well, the answer is television viewership and global expansion. Front Office Sports reported on December 18, 2024 that the league had suffered a 19% decline in TV viewership from last season. Commissioner Adam Silver believes that streaming services are to blame for the decline and viewership.

Silver’s comments are convenient, as the league agreed to a new media rights deal last year. The deal will include airing games on two different streaming platforms, Prime Video and Peacock.

Consequently, Sliver wants Luka Dončić in Los Angeles to ensure that the marque game on a streaming platform doesn’t have low viewership numbers. LeBron James has stated that he may retire in a year or two. James and Stephen Curry are currently the two biggest TV draws for the league. 

The most viewed game this season has been the matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors. On Christmas Day, the matchup averaged over 7 million viewers, the highest-rated game in five seasons. On January 18, the matchup generated 3 million viewers, the second-highest-viewed game outside of Christmas Day.

Therefore, the league is trying to make Luka Dončić a bigger viewership draw by putting him alongside James. Luka Dončić has delivered good viewership numbers for the league.

The Mavericks were 6th in live viewership during the 2023-24 season on the NBA application. Dallas only trailed the Lakers, Warriors, Celtics, Clippers, and Suns. All those teams except for Boston had superstars in the back end of their prime. 

Consequently, Dončić needs to surpass those players in popularity for the league to further decline in fan interest and viewership. The league hopes that James can help some of his fans become Luka Dončić fans.

If they are successful, the league can at least maintain its current viewership numbers after James is retired.

Global expansion

Putting Luka Dončić in Los Angeles isn’t only an attempt to solve viewership issues but also the next step in Adam Silvers’s plan for global expansion. As we know, Luka Dončić was born in Europe, specifically Slovenia.

Adam Silver has reiterated multiple times that he wants the lead to expand into Europe. Sliver stated on January 23 that he wanted to increase the NBA footprint in Europe.

“We are looking very closely to see if there’s an opportunity to professionalize the game to another level here, to create a larger commercial opportunity,” Silver said. “And not just because commercial opportunity suggests you can grow revenue, but because we believe that with markets, if you can create proper incentives, you can get significant additional investment. And ultimately, that’s the way to grow the game at all levels.”

Furthermore, Adam Silver is aware that the league’s European viewership is driven by players who were born on that continent. NBA public relations stated on April 24, 2024, that the viewership on the NBA application increased by 39% in Europe year over year.

The European increase was driven by Victor Wembanyama’s viewership in France, which increased by 177% during his rookie year. As a result, Luka Dončić playing for a legacy franchise in the Los Angeles Lakers will only accelerate Adam Sliver’s plan for global expansion.

In conclusion, I believe that the Dallas Mavericks’ decision to trade Luka Dončić was a deliberate move by the league to accomplish its business goals.