Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero has been inefficient through his first 20 appearances in the 2025-26 season. He is shooting 43.6% on 14.9 attempts, which has led him to average 20.5 points per game.
Paolo Banchero’s shooting stats
Paolo Banchero’s efficiency issues stem from a decline in his shooting percentage outside the restricted area. Over his first three seasons in the league, Paolo Banchero was known as a below-average shooter outside of a restricted area. He shot 39.4% on 12.9 attempts per game.
Although the statistics aren’t great, they are significantly better than his performance over the first 20 games of the season. He is currently shooting 32.4% outside of a restricted area on 10.5 attempts per game.
Given his track record, one would suggest that he changed his shot profile and take field attempts closer to the basket. Unfortunately, Paolo Banchero is facing a defensive coverage that limits his ability to attack the basket. When Paolo Banchero is going to take a step inside the arc he gets surrounded by multiple defenders.
On December 20 2025, Paolo Banchero was standing on the left wing with 4:54 left in overtime against the Utah Jazz. He ran over to the top of the key to receive a pass from Desmond Bane. Upon receiving the ball, he dribbled it over to the right wing before attempting to attack the basket.
He had to stop his drive towards the basket once he reached the elbow because Ace Bailey and Jusuf Nurkić were blocking his path. He ended the possession by missing a fade-away midrange jumper.
On the very next offensive possession, he received a pass from Bane as he approached half-court. Upon receiving the ball, he began running towards the basket. Unfortunately, the Utah Jazz had three players standing below the free-throw line blocking his path to the basket. Paolo Banchero ended the possession by missing a contested layup.
The Orlando Magic rotation
Paolo Banchero is facing this type of defensive coverage because of Orlando’s talent acquisition philosophy. The Orlando Magic hired Jeff Weltman as President of Basketball Operations on May 22 2017.
Jeff’s talent acquisition philosophy has been to draft the best available player with good character. On June 24, 2025, Jeff told the media that his philosophy hasn’t changed in eight years.
We have to go through the process,” he said recently. “Our roster has changed. So, maybe from that perspective, we may have to recalibrate our needs and how we want to fill the positional needs we have. But I don’t think our draft philosophy changes.”
“The philosophy is to add the best player,” he said. “And we spend a lot of time on the person. Character matters in this league. We spend a lot of time on that.
Jeff’s philosophy is important because 60% of the current Orlando Magic rotation was drafted by the team during his tenure. Desmond Bane, Goga Bitadze, Tyus Jones, and Wendell Carter Jr are the only rotation players who didn’t begin their careers with Orlando.
Weltman’s player personnel decisions has put Orlando in a position where they have only one above-average shooter in the rotation , Bane. Desmond Bane is a career 40.7% three point shooter on 6.2 attempts per game.
As a result, Banchero plays a significant number of his minutes with lineups featuring multiple subpar shooters. For instance, he has played with Bane, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and Wendell Carter Jr. in 11 games this season, averaging 10.6 minutes per contest.
Unfortunately, Carter, Suggs, and Wagner have career three-point shooting percentages of below 33% on at least 2.3 attempts per game. These lineups have contributed to Orlando being a below-average shooting team.
Orlando’s shooting performance
Over the first 30 games, Orlando ranks 27th in three-point percentage, showing 34.3% on 33.1 attempts per game. It is not the first time Orlando has been a below-average shooting team during his career.
The Magic have been below average at three-point shooting in every single season of his career. They have an average three-point percentage ranking of 26th, converting 33.9% of their attempts since the 2022-23 season on 32.6 per game.
Consequently, opposing teams have created a game plan that centers around clogging the paint. The game plan forces Orlando to make a bad decision: take a contested shot near the basket or a low-percentage three.
The Orlando Magic have chosen to take the contested shot inside the arc. Over the first 30 games, Orlando ranks 6th in two-point field goal attempts with a defender within 2 feet, averaging 6.8 per game. They are shooting 40.2% on the shot, 29th in the league.
The Magic have also taken the 8th-most field goal attempts with a defender within 4 feet, averaging 33.9 per game. Orlando is shooting 55.6% from the field, 12th in the league. On the flip side, Orlando currently ranks 24th in three-point attempts, averaging 33.1 per game.
How Orlando can maximize Banchero
If Orlando acquired more players with a reliable shooting track record, the game would become easier for him. If opposing teams still decide to put multiple defenders near the basket, Paolo Banchero will feel more comfortable passing the ball to the perimeter for a wide-open three-pointer.
Over Orlando’s first 30 games, Paolo Banchero has been the primary distributor for the Magic. Paolo Banchero leads the team in passes per game, averaging 47.2 per contest. 45.8% of those passes have gone to Anthony Black and Bane, receiving 21.6 per game.
Unfortunately, like his teammates, Black is a below-average shooter. He has a career three-point shooting percentage of 33.5% on 2.3 attempts per game. Paolo Banchero’s choices as a distributor have led the team to generate only 6.4 three-pointers per game from those passes.
On the other hand, if opponents stay closer to shooters, Paolo Banchero will have more space to get shots near the rim. In his first 20 appearances this season, Paolo Banchero is shooting 70.1% from the restricted area on 4.4 attempts per game.
The success inside the restricted area is not a fluke. Over his first three seasons, Paolo Banchero shot 64.1% in the restricted area on 5.1 attempts per game.
Paolo Banchero is experiencing the collateral damage that comes with being drafted by an organization that prioritizes talent over fit.
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