NBA Realities

The Miami Heat are currently projected to win fewer than 40 games during the 2025-26 season.  BET MGM stated on September 10 that Miami had an over / under of 39.5 wins.

At first glance, BET MGM’s projection appears reasonable, as the organization did not make dramatic roster changes from its 37-win team last season. Miami has only made three notable changes to the roster.

On July 1, Miami agreed to participate in a sign-and-trade deal with the Detroit Pistons. Detroit acquired Duncan Robinson in a sign-and-trade from Miami in exchange for Simone Fontecchio.

Six days later, on July 7, the Heat organization was involved in a three-team trade with the Los Angeles Clippers and the Utah Jazz. Miami sent Kyle Anderson and Kevin Love to the Jazz. Those two assets allowed Miami to acquire Norman Powell from the Clippers.

The Heat’s final offseason move came five weeks later on August 15. The team traded Haywood Highsmith to the Brooklyn Nets for a 2028 second-round pick. According to ESPN, the Highsmith trade was strictly financially motivated. Before the trade, Miami was 1.4 million over the luxury tax. The trade allowed Miami the ability to get under the luxury tax.

On the surface, the off-season moves do not indicate that the team will dramatically improve its win total during the 2025-26 season. However, upon closer examination, Miami should have had more than 37 wins last season.

Miami struggled to maintain leads last season. According to Champsorchumps.us, Miami was 11th in the league in the category, blowing 40 leads in the previous season. 52.5% of those blown leads came in the fourth quarter as the team led the league in that category, losing 21 leads in the quarter.

Furthermore, Miami lost a ten-point lead 22 times last season, accounting for 55% of their blown leads. The Heat’s inability to hold on to a lead was attributed mainly to their abysmal fourth-quarter offense. The team averaged 25.8 points, shooting 46.1% on 20.3 attempts per game, ranking 29th in the league.

The Fourth-Quarter Problem That Doomed the 2024-25 Heat

The Heat’s awful quarter statistics can be attributed to multiple different lineups, which include one player, Terry Rozier. Terry appeared in 57 games last season, averaging 9.4 minutes per game in the fourth quarter. 

During those minutes, the Miami Heat would put their worst offensive lineup on the floor. For instance, the lineup of Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith, Jamie Jacquez, and Rozier averaged 3.8 minutes per game over five appearances. The lineup averaged 5.2 points, shooting 32.1% on 5.6 attempts per game.

Miami put out a different variation of the same lineup for another four minutes, with the only difference being that Tyler Herro replaced Robinson. The second variation didn’t perform much better over its five appearances. They averaged 6.8 points, shooting 37.5% from the field on an average of 6.4 attempts per game.

For context, these two units were among the top three lineups used by the Miami Heat in the fourth quarter. The only lineup that was used at a greater frequency during the fourth quarter was Adebayo, Highsmith, Hero, Robinson, and Rozier. The unit averaged five minutes per game in its seven appearances.

For comparison, Rozier’s fourth-quarter minutes were 54.1% higher than all other quarters. During the first three quarters, he averaged 6.1 minutes of action per quarter.

The reduced workload led to better offensive results for the team. The team ranked 19th in offense, averaging 27.9 points per quarter, while shooting 46.7% from the field on 21.9 attempts.

Terry Rozier’s Role and Why It Held Miami Back

You are most likely wondering why the Heat struggled in the fourth quarter with Rozier on the court. The Miami Heat ran a ball movement offense last year. 

They average 290.3 passes per game, 8th in the league. The Miami offense led him to stand behind the arc as a floor spacer on most possessions. On November 27, 2024, Terry inbounded the ball to Haywood Highsmith with three minutes to go in the fourth quarter against the Charlotte Hornets. 

After inbounding the ball, Rozier would stand in the right corner. He stayed there for the remainder of the position, as Haywood Highsmith would pass the ball to Herro. Tyler would take a couple of steps towards the basket before passing the ball to Bam near the elbow.

Adebayo would immediately pass the ball back to Tyler, and Hero would drive to the basket for a layup. His role contributed to him averaging only 3.2 shot attempts in the fourth quarter. 53.1% of those attempts were three-pointers, as he averaged 1.7 per game.

At first glance, he is an above-average shooter, as evidenced by his career shooting percentage of 36.1% on 5.6 attempts per game. However, his best shooting season occurred during the pandemic era.

He shot 38.8% on 7.7 attempts per game from 2019 to 2022. Outside of those years, he has shot 33.2% on five attempts per game. Given the current circumstances, Miami should decrease his minutes next season.

From 39 Wins to Top-5 Seed: The Path for the Miami Heat

It appears that Miami is leaning toward giving Rozier a dramatically reduced role or no playing time at all.  Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald stated on September 25 that the organization is unsure if it will use him next season.

“Instead, the Heat is currently operating under the expectation that Rozier will be one of the seven guards on its standard roster at the start of the season, along with Tyler Herro, Kasparas Jakucionis, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell and Dru Smith”.

“With Herro expected to miss at least the first month of the regular season after undergoing surgery on Friday to alleviate posterior impingement syndrome in his left ankle, Rozier could actually get an opportunity to earn some playing time early in the schedule”.

If the Heat remove him from the rotation/ roster, they should reduce the number of blown leads next season, resulting in at least five to ten extra wins.

Miami’s Defense Thrives on Discipline, Not Fouls

A potential counterargument would be that I am only discussing the offensive side of the ball and have not mentioned Miami’s defensive performance. Well, Miami statistically had a top-ten defense last year, holding opponents to 110 points per game, which ranked 7th in the league.

Miami’s defensive success was related to its low foul rate. The Heat averaged 15.5 defensive fouls per game last season, best in the league. The team’s low foul rate is not an anomaly, as they have been in the top five in this category for the past three seasons, averaging 17.1 fouls per game.

Miami’s low foul rate was due to the team relying on foot movement to play defense instead of its hands. On February 13, 2025, Duncan Robinson was guarding Max Christie with 1:20 minutes left in the fourth quarter against the Dallas Mavericks. Christie had the ball on the left wing and decided to drive to the basket by going to his left. 

Initially, Max was unable to get past him as Robinson kept shuffling his feet to the right to maintain his torso in front of Christie. The sequence kept recurring until both players reached the free-throw line, when Max Christie performed a spin move to create separation.

Max Christie was successful, as he was able to get enough room to make a turnaround jumper. These types of plays were the catalyst behind opposing teams only averaging 17.7 free throws per game against Miami last season, the second-lowest in the league.

Warp Up

If my argument comes to fruition, the Miami Heat will be in contention for a top-five seed in the Eastern Conference with Atlanta and Detroit. As of September 10, Bet MGM had projected the Atlanta Hawks and Detroit Pistons to battle for the fourth and fifth seeds in the East, with 46 wins.