Indiana Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard is going to have a career year during the 2025-26 season. Yes, you read that correctly. Now, let me explain my reasoning behind this take.
Andrew Nembhard’s skill set strength
Before entering the N B A draft in 2022, Andrew Nembhard had a reputation for excelling as a pick-and-roll ball handler. According to the No Ceilings substack, Synergy ranked him in the 88th percentile in pick-and-roll productivity during his time at the University of Gonzaga.
“When evaluating NBA point guards, how they manage pick-and-roll situations is of great importance. Thankfully, Nembhard is exceptional in this area. He currently grades out in the 88th percentile on Synergy for overall pick-and-roll derived offense. One part of it is Nembhard’s scoring package. He grades out in the 92nd percentile in “All jump shots off the dribble in the halfcourt,” and he grades out as “Very Good” on both runners and shots around the basket, per Synergy. If you sag back, he can pull up and drain a jumper in your face. If you play him tight, he can take you to the rim and use his length to finish at the cup. The second part of his pick-and-roll brilliance is his ability to see everything on the court paired with his gorgeous passing arsenal. Nembhard can hit the roll man, spot-up shooters, or cutters, and he’ll always deliver the most efficient pass to get them the best look possible. He can dish out lobs, sneaky bounce passes that he looks off with grace, or even rapid-fire skips. Nembhard has a supreme sense of where everyone on the court is at all times, and he also has the ability to pass his teammates open. Nothing is off the table when Nembhard is operating a pick-and-roll”.
.
Andrew Nembhard has continued to excel in the role as a professional despite limited opportunities. During his first three seasons in the league, he has been a pick-and-roll ball handler on 31.8% of his offensive possessions, averaging 3.3 per game. He averaged 2.8 points per game in the play type, shooting 45.4% from the field on 2.6 attempts per game.
Despite Andrew Nembhard’s success, the Indiana Pacers have been starting him alongside All-Star guard Tyrese Halliburton. Consequently, he has spent the majority of his offensive possessions as the off-ball guard.
On March 31, 2025, Andrew Nembhard stood in the right corner with six minutes to go in the first quarter against the Sacramento Kings. He remained in the corner for the entire possession as Halliburton began a pick-and-roll sequence with backup center Tony Bradley.
Unfortunately, when Halliburton went over the screen, Kings’ guard Keon Ellis poked the ball from behind, causing a turnover. Andrew Nembhard, standing behind the three-point line as a floor spacer, has been a common occurrence throughout his career.
One of the Indiana Pacers’ favorite offensive sets over the past three seasons has been the pick-and-roll. Indiana had run the set on 17.7% of their offensive possessions, averaging 20 per game.
The Pacers have given 39% of their pick-and-roll possessions to Halliburton, as he averaged 7.8 per game. Due to this, Nembhard has taken 35.7% of his shots from behind the arc during his career averaging 2.9 per game.
Nembhard has struggled with three point shooting since college. He shot 34.3% from behind the arc on 3.3 attempts per game in 4 college seasons. Andrew has not improved his three point shooting as a professional as he is converting 33.5% of the attempts.
Andrew Nembhard’s role is expected to change for next season. Halliburton has been ruled out for the upcoming season as he recovers from a torn Achilles suffered during the 2025 NBA Finals.
Consequently, Andrew Nembhard should get more opportunities to be the primary pick-and-roll ball handler. For instance, if the Indiana Pacers decide to double his pick and roll opportunities from 3.3 to 6.3 per game.
Why the Pacers Can Still Compete Without Halliburton
Andrew Nembhard can realistically average 5.6 points per game in the play type. The hypothetical increase in pick-and-roll production will have a trickle-down effect on his overall production. The pick and roll currently accounts for 29.2% of his offensive production. Andrew Nembhard has a career average of 9.6 points, shooting 46.4% on 8.2 attempts per game.
If Andrew Nembhard can increase his individual statistics like I expect, the Indiana Pacers should be competing for a 4th to 6th seed in the Eastern Conference.
Indiana’s offense has performed exceptionally well with Andrew Nembhard on the court. During his career, the Pacers have averaged 66.1 points, shooting 48.7% on 50.7 attempts per game in 27.2 minutes.
The Pacers’ offensive performance with Andrew Nembhard on the floor has allowed them to outscore opponents by 0.2 points per game.
The statistics are in the same ballpark as to when Halliburton is on the floor for the team. Over the last three seasons, Indiana had averaged 83.8 points, shooting 49.4% from the field on 62.4 attempts per game.
They have outscored opponents by 2.2 points per game in the 33.1 minutes that Halliburton is on the court. In conclusion, Halliburton’s absence will open the door for Nembhard to get more pick and roll opportunities leading to a break out season.
Leave a ReplyCancel reply