The San Antonio Spurs are reportedly leaning towards selecting Dylan Harper with the second overall pick in the 2025 draft. Jeremy Woo of ESPN stated on May 19 that San Antonio would be OK with adding Harper to their young core.
“San Antonio was thrilled with its lottery luck, and early signs indicate that it is very comfortable with Harper, prioritizing the best available talent over fit concerns in a backcourt that features De’Aaron Fox and NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. Building around Victor Wembanyama (21 years old), Castle (20) and Harper (19) on rookie contracts is an enviable foundation that offers tremendous short-term flexibility from a salary cap perspective”.
📉 Mismatch in the Making: Dylan Harper vs. Spurs’ System
However, the San Antonio Spurs’ offensive system makes drafting Dylan Harper a bad idea. Mitch Johnson was named interim head coach on November 4, 2024, after Gregg Popovich suffered a mild stroke.
Once Johnson took over, he ran a ball movement offense as the Spurs ranked ninth in passes per game. The team averaged 289.5 passes over the final 76 games of the 2024-25 season. Johnson’s system forced guards to spend significant offensive possessions as floor spacers.
With two minutes to go in the fourth quarter, Chris Paul received an inbound pass from Devin Vassell against the Atlanta Hawks. Paul dribbled the ball until he reached midcourt, passing it to De’Aaron Fox.
Fox took a couple of dribbles before passing the ball to Jeremy Sochan, standing between the left elbow and the three-point line. Jeremy Sochan held the ball until Fox came for a dribble handoff. Fox dribbled the ball a couple more times before passing it to Devin Vassell, who was on the other side of the court. Devin ended the possession by missing a three-pointer.
As the possession unfolded, Paul and Vassell spent most of their time standing behind the three-point line. Johnson’s offense led Paul, Vassell, and Castle to take at least 33% of their guards from behind the arc, averaging at least 4.1 per game.
🧠 Harper’s Talent Is Undeniable — But Not for San Antonio
Unfortunately, Dylan Harper’s role as floor spacer would cause significant issues. He shot 33.3% on 5.2 attempts per game during his only season at Rutgers University. Furthermore, Harper was ineffective as a shooter outside of a restricted area. According to Hoop Intellect, he shot around 28% on mid-range jumpers.
Harper’s shooting woes are not something the Spurs need at this moment. During the regular season, the San Antonio Spurs ranked 7th in three-point attempts, averaging 39.6 per game. Unfortunately, they ranked 20th with a three-point percentage, shooting 35.7%.
Therefore, San Antonio Spurs head coach Mitch Johnson would have to make significant changes to his offense for Dylan Harper to thrive with the team. Harper excelled near the basket, shooting 67.6% in the restricted area on 179 attempts at Rutgers.
Harper likes to use the pick-and-roll to get to the rim. On 122 attempts, he shot 43.4% as a pick-and-roll ball handler. The San Antonio Spurs did not feature the pick-and-roll in their offense during the regular season.
They ran the play type on 13.8% of their offensive possessions, averaging 15.5 per game, which is 25th in the league. Consequently, the San Antonio Spurs would be better off trading the second overall pick for more assets.
📦 The Smarter Play: Trade Down, Add Talent That Fits
San Antonio could trade the second overall pick to Portland for the number 11 pick and Anfernee Simons. Anfernee will be 26 next season and has an outstanding three-point shooting track record.
He has a career shooting percentage of 38.1% on 6.5 attempts per game. Simons’ skill set better equips him to excel in the San Antonio Spurs system, which forces guards to be off the ball.
Although Dylan Harper is the second-best prospect in the 2025 draft, his skill set indicates that he would struggle with the San Antonio Spurs.
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